That upset cost them a chance to play for the Big Ten championship, but they are still likely to not only make the CFP but host a game in the first round.
After projecting conference champions who get automatic bids and byes in the first round, Ohio State would be the No. 8 seed based on the rankings this week.
That means they would host No. 9 Tennessee on Dec. 20 or 21 with the winner going to the Rose Bowl to play No. 1 Oregon on Jan. 1.
Prior to the release of the rankings, Ohio State was widely expected to remain comfortably in the projected field for the first 12-team CFP thanks to having wins over Penn State and Indiana, who are ranked No. 3 and 9 this week.
The Buckeyes also have the strongest loss in the country, a one-point setback at Oregon in early October, but Michigan goes in the “bad loss” column since the Wolverines are just 7-5.
There was some intrigue regarding how far the Buckeyes would fall, though, and they landed behind two-loss Georgia and ahead of two-loss Tennessee.
CFP committee chair Warde Manuel said the resumes of the teams that are idle this week — including Ohio State and Tennessee — will not be reconsidered, so the Buckeyes will remain ahead of the Volunteers, but the conference title games this weekend still will result in some changes.
The loser of the Big Ten title game — Oregon or Penn State — will not be eligible for a top four seed, and neither is No. 4 Notre Dame since the Fighting Irish are not in a conference.
That means two other conference championship game winners will move into the top four, and there is room for a lot of variance in that case with No. 2 Texas playing No. 5 Georgia in the SEC, No. 8 SMU playing No. 17 Clemson in the ACC, No. 10 Boise State playing No. 20 UNLV in the Mountain West and No. 15 Arizona State playing No. 16 Iowa State in the Big 12.
The five highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids, and the top four get a bye, but the fifth could end up the 12 seed based on the rankings this week.
That all leaves No. 11 Alabama as the last team in this week, but it remains to be seen if the Crimson Tide are a lock to make it when all is said and done.
Could they lose their spot to SMU if Clemson steals the ACC’s automatic bid with a win in their conference title game?
“You know, that is something that we will decide in the room at the conclusion of those games when we evaluate what happens in the championship,” Manuel on a conference call after the rankings were released. “I can’t sort of go into the future and tell you exactly how the outcome of that discussion will be. It depends on the outcome of the game and how it’s played and the results themselves.
“We will just have to wait and see how the committee is going to analyze that game depending on the outcome, where things will go in terms of rankings and how people will move or will not move.”
He also addressed how the committee differentiated between Ohio State, Georgia and Tennessee.
“The two losses by Georgia were to ranked teams in Alabama and Mississippi, both on the road,” said Manuel, who is the director of athletics at Michigan. “You look at Ohio State having two great wins (over No. 3 Penn State and No. 9 Indiana), a loss on the road at Oregon, a loss at home (to Michigan). It was a great conversation — both of them having very strong offenses and very strong defenses. It was a back and forth between the two, and the outcome of the vote was really close in terms of where they fell.”
What about the Buckeyes and Volunteers? Manuel said they have very similar resumes as well.
“Ohio State is 2-1 against top-10 teams. They have the win over Indiana and the win over Penn State. One of their two losses is to the No. 1 team in the country and then obviously the loss to Michigan last week.
“Tennessee also has had an impressive resume. They have two losses against Arkansas and against No. 5 Georgia. So they’re very close. It was a constant conversation as to how we saw both teams, a lot of deliberation on them, and so it was just was a lot of conversation in the outcome of the vote that had Ohio State ahead of Tennessee.”
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