How the Reds can get into the playoffs this year

For a team, any team, to win a division, let alone a pennant or a World Series, Lady Luck plays a huge role — you don’t want a “7” on the routlette wheel when your chips are stacked on “13.”

Most everything needs to go right. A mishap or two along the way can wreck an entire season. Avoid injuries. Avoid long losing streaks. Avoid two or three players encountering subpar years. Avoid personality clashes and unrest in the clubhouse. So much to consider because so much can happen — or not happen.

So what needs to happen for the Cincinnati Reds to win the 2012 National League Central championship (or wild card) and advance to the playoffs for only the second time in 17 years?

1 Third baseman Scott Rolen is one player who needs to help hoist the team on his back and carry it. His back hasn’t been too good lately, nor his shoulder. When healthy, Rolen can do that and did it in 2010. He needs to stay healthy and do it again.

2 Ryan Madson is gone and needs to be forgotten. The closer role falls on the talented left arm of Sean Marshall, still in training to be a closer but with some limited success in Chicago. Is Marshall up to it? He better be. And how do you think Coco Cordero feels these days when he looks at his situation in Toronto and what he could have been doing in Cincinnati?

3 Either Ryan Ludwick or Chris Heisey (or both) need to fill a gaping hole in left field. Neither have been eye-poppers during spring training, but one or both need to step in and step up.

4 Two rookies, shortstop Zack Cozart and catcher Devon Mesoraco, are occupying important positions. Defensively, both are big-league caliber. But they need to provide some offense, too. Can they do it? They better.

5 How good is the starting rotation? Johnny Cueto? Solid. The rest? Who knows. Will the real Bronson Arroyo stand up? Which is the real Mat Latos, the good one from 2010 or the so-so one from 2011? Will Mike Leake continue to improve and fool hitters with his tricky stuff? Who’s No. 5 — Homer Bailey or Aroldis Chapman? Either one is a pretty solid No. 5.

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