Much like recent presidential elections, this year’s contest is not about the millions of voters in all 50 states.
Instead, the outcome will be decided by a slice of swing voters in Ohio and a handful of other states.
“It’s a small number of people in a small number of states,’’ said Merle Black, a professor of political science at Emory University in Atlanta.
It helps explain why Obama will launch his re-election campaign today with a rally at Ohio State University, the fourth time he has visited Ohio this year.
And it makes clear why Romney and Obama will spend so much time in Florida, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The shrinking pool of competitive states is symbolic of the deep ideological divide among individual voters.
Unlike the 1960 presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, when the margin of victory in 17 states was three percentage points or less, today California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois are solidly Democratic, while Texas and most Southern states are securely Republican.
Gone are the days when Kennedy campaigned in 45 states in 1960 and Nixon appeared in all 50. They maintained such a grueling pace because half of the states were close races.
By contrast, when Republican George W. Bush narrowly won the presidency in 2000 with 271 electoral votes against 266 for Democrat Al Gore, only seven states were decided by margins of 3 percent or less, with the race coming down to a few disputed votes in Florida.
“You have your battleground states and your flyover states,’’ said David Leland, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. “Obama doesn’t have to win Ohio to win the election but he knows if he can keep Romney from winning it, Romney can’t win the election.’’
There will be a few tactical detours as Romney campaigns in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Obama drops in to say hello in Indiana — a state that went Democratic for the first time in 44 years in 2008. While acknowledging that the race is “not by any means a 50-state campaign,’’ John Brabender, a senior adviser to the presidential campaign of Republican Rick Santorum, said that just because “they’re not in play doesn’t mean the campaigns won’t campaign there.’’
“The more the Romney people can put Pennsylvania in play and Michigan in play — even if they don’t win them — it may force Obama to spend critical time and resources there,’’ Brabender said.
The dramatic decline in the number of competitive states can be traced to the transformation of the old South from a Democratic bastion to a solidly Republican region combined with huge Democratic gains in California.
In the South, white conservatives deserted the Democratic Party in droves during the 1980s. At the beginning of that decade, about 40 percent of white conservatives called themselves Republicans. By the end of the 1980s, 60 percent of white conservatives described themselves as Republicans.
As a result, the Republicans roll up huge majorities in the South, sweeping the states of the old Confederacy in 2004, 2000, 1988, and 1984. But as the dominance of Southern conservatives prodded the Republican Party further to the right, the GOP’s conservative stances cost the party dearly in socially moderate California, where a Republican presidential nominee has not won since George H.W. Bush did in 1988.
“The loss of California really changed the map and made the Democrats more competitive,’’ Black said. “No one is going to campaign seriously in California.’’
Unlike California, Ohio has remained a state that both parties have a chance to win. In 2004, Ohio’s electoral votes gave Bush the presidency. But four years ago, Obama defeated Republican John McCain in Ohio by four points, making it impossible for the GOP to hold the White House.
In addition, the Republican futility in California provides Obama and other Democratic presidential nominees with a huge edge in the Electoral College. Obama begins the race with California’s 55 electoral votes — 20 percent of the votes needed to win the presidency.
The drawback is that critics contend that while there is heightened interest in Ohio in the election because the state is so crucial, there is little incentive for people in California, Texas, New York and New Jersey to vote because neither candidate will spend much time there.
The alarming drop in voter turnout supports that claim. In 1960, 63.1 percent of the voting age population showed up at the polls. By 2000, the number plummeted to 51.3 percent. Only greater enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 bumped the turnout number to 56.8 percent.
“Unfortunately, the Electoral College system disenfranchises about 75 percent of the population,’’ Leland said. “At the end of the day if you are a Republican are you going to spend millions of dollars to get 45 percent of the vote in California? And if you’re a Democrat, are you going to spend millions of dollars to get 45 percent of the vote in Texas? The answer is no.’’
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