“I think $4.50 would be a worst-case scenario .... The more likely would be just over $4,” he said.
The average gas price last Memorial Day was $3.79 per gallon in the Dayton-Springfield market, according to AAA Miami Valley.
Last year was the priciest ever for gasoline. In 2011, the average gallon of regular gas sold for a record high of more than $3.51, with the typical U.S. household spending $4,155 to fill up at the pump, according to industry data.
“Since we are forecasting higher prices this year, I would say that Americans should anticipate spending more on gasoline in 2012 than they did last year,” DeHaan said.
Springfielder Jim Westbeld said the predicted price spike is ridiculous. He was pumping gas at Valero on Saint Paris Pike, where prices were at $3.38 a gallon Tuesday.
He said he’s made some adjustments because of rising prices, such as buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle and driving less.
“We don’t go on vacations,” Westbeld said. “I’m on retirement and it takes all my money for gas.”
Amanda Cavcey, a senior at Wittenberg University who is doing student teaching, said high gas prices worry her as she enters a semester of student teaching.
She said she will have to drive an extra 20 minutes a day to get to schools where she’s teaching.
“I’m considering school transportation instead of driving my vehicle,” she said. “They don’t give you money for (student teaching).”
Cavcey also said she has started consolidating her trips on a shopping day to save on gas.
Kerry Rowan of Kettering said higher gas prices will limit his driving.
“I just cashed in a bunch of cans to get some gas. That’s how bad it is,” he said.
U.S. oil demand has fallen for 10 consecutive months, in part because of the sluggish economy and rising sales for fuel-efficient vehicles, said Ray Keyton, president and chief executive of AAA Miami Valley.
Crude oil prices on Jan. 4 soared to their highest price in several months at $103.22 per barrel because of fears that a confrontation between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt Persian Gulf tanker traffic carrying some 40 percent of the world’s sea-borne oil.
“If that would happen, then obviously everything is going to spike,” Keyton said.
Crude oil prices closed Monday at $101.31 per barrel. Price fluctuations are “reflected in every gallon of gasoline,” Keyton said.
DeHaan said rising demand for gasoline in China also is a concern. Chinese workers are buying cars at a record pace and the country is rapidly building its oil infrastructure.
“That is putting tremendous competition and pressure on oil and gasoline prices,” he said.
A sudden slowdown of the U.S. economy might be the only thing that would drive gas prices down.
“That is the double-edge sword with gas prices,” DeHaan said. “Prices rise when the economy is improving; they fall when it is not.”
Springfield and Dayton-area gas prices probably will fluctuate from $3.30 to $3.65 per gallon in January and February, before they start to climb in late March or early April, DeHaan said.
Keyton said oil companies switch over from their winter blend fuel to a more expensive summer blend in late April or early May, which drives up gas prices.
Gasoline demand typically starts to rise around Memorial Day because it is “the first big summer holiday period where people like to get out and go places,” Keyton said.
Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2419 or Dave.Larsen@coxinc.com.
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