Stock markets abroad mostly fell after President-elect Trump said he plans to impose sweeping new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China once he takes office. But the movements were mostly modest. Stock indexes were down 0.1% in Shanghai and nearly flat in Hong Kong, while Canada's main index edged down by less than 0.1%.
Trump has often praised the use of tariffs, but investors are weighing whether his latest threat will actually become policy or is just an opening point for negotiations. For now, the market seems to be taking it more as the latter.
The consequences otherwise for markets and the global economy could be painful.
Unless the United States can prepare alternatives for the autos, energy products and other goods that come from Mexico, Canada and China, such tariffs would raise the price of imported items all at once and make households poorer, according to Carl Weinberg and Rubeela Farooqi, economists at High Frequency Economics.
They would also hurt profit margins for U.S. companies, while raising the threat of retaliatory tariffs by other countries. And unlike tariffs in Trump’s first term, his latest proposal would affect products across the board.
General Motors sank 9%, and Ford Motor fell 2.6% because both import automobiles from Mexico. Constellation Brands, which sells Modelo and other Mexican beer brands in the United States, dropped 3.3%. The value of the Mexican peso fell 1.8% against the U.S. dollar.
Beyond the pain such tariffs would cause U.S. households and businesses, they could also push the Federal Reserve to slow or even halt its cuts to interest rates. The Fed had just begun easing its main interest rate from a two-decade high a couple months ago to offer support for the job market. While lower interest rates can boost the economy, they can also offer more fuel for inflation.
"Many" officials at the Fed's last meeting earlier this month said they should lower rates gradually, according to minutes of the meeting released Tuesday afternoon.
The talk about tariffs overshadowed another mixed set of profit reports from U.S. retailers that answered few questions about how much more shoppers can keep spending. They’ll need to stay resilient after helping the economy avoid a recession, despite the high interest rates imposed by the Fed to get inflation under control.
A report on Tuesday from the Conference Board said confidence among U.S. consumers improved in November, but not by as much as economists expected.
Kohl's tumbled 17% after its results for the latest quarter fell short of analysts' expectations. CEO Tom Kingsbury said sales remain soft for apparel and footwear. A day earlier, Kingsbury said he plans to step down as CEO in January. Ashley Buchanan, CEO of Michaels and a retail veteran, will replace him.
Best Buy fell 4.9% after likewise falling short of analysts' expectations. Dick's Sporting Goods topped forecasts for the latest quarter thanks to a strong back-to-school season, but its stock lost an early gain to fall 1.4%.
Still, more stocks rose in the S&P 500 than fell. J.M. Smucker had one of the biggest gains and climbed 5.7% after topping analysts’ expectations for the latest quarter. CEO Mark Smucker credited strength for its Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Café Bustelo and Jif brands.
Big Tech stocks also helped prop up U.S. indexes. Gains of 3.2% for Amazon and 2.2% for Microsoft were the two strongest forces lifting the S&P 500.
All told, the S&P 500 rose 34.26 points to 6,021.63. The Dow gained 123.74 to 44,860.31, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 119.46 to 19,174.30.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady following their big drop from a day before driven by relief following Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury inched up to 4.29% from 4.28% late Monday, but it’s still well below the 4.41% level where it ended last week.
In the crypto market, bitcoin continued to pull back after topping $99,000 for the first time late last week. It's since dipped back toward $91,000, according to CoinDesk.
It's a sharp turnaround from the bonanza that initially took over the crypto market following Trump's election. That boom had also appeared to have spilled into some corners of the stock market. Strategists at Barclays Capital pointed to stocks of unprofitable companies, along with other areas that can be caught up in bursts of optimism by smaller-pocketed "retail" investors.
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AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.