Forecast models vary widely, but the most likely path would have Milton making landfall Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area and remaining a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean.
That would largely spare other southeastern states ravaged by Helene, which caused catastrophic damage from northern Florida to the Appalachian Mountains and killed at least 230 people.
Milton's center was about 165 miles (265 kilometers) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 745 miles (1,195 kilometers) west-southwest of Tampa early Monday, moving east-southeast at 8 mph (13 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Milton is a bit atypical since it formed so far west and is expected to cross the entire southern Gulf, according to Daniel Brown, a hurricane specialist at the center.
“It’s not uncommon to get a hurricane threat in October along the west coast of Florida, but forming all the way in the southwest Gulf and then striking Florida is a little bit more unusual,” Brown said. Most storms that form in October and hit Florida come from the Caribbean, not the southwestern Gulf, he said.
A hurricane warning was in effect for Mexico from Celestun to Rio Lagartos. A hurricane watch was in effect for Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche and Campeche to south of Celestun, and for Florida's Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay, and for Dry Tortugas.
Forecasters warned of an 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay. A storm surge watch was in effect for Florida's Gulf Coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. A tropical storm warning was issued in Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cancun and from Campeche to south of Celestun.
A tropical storm watch was in effect for Florida's Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee and from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida Keys, including Florida Bay.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that while it remains to be seen where Milton will strike, it’s clear the state is going to be hit hard.
“You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place,” DeSantis said. “If you’re on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you’ll be asked to leave.”
About 7 million people were urged to evacuate Florida in 2017 as Hurricane Irma bore down. The exodus jammed freeways, led to long lines at gas stations and left evacuees in some cases vowing never to evacuate again.
Building on lessons learned during Irma and other previous storms, Florida is staging emergency fuel for gas vehicles and charging stations for electric vehicles along evacuation routes, Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said Sunday.
"We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma," Guthrie said.
The Tampa Bay area is still cleaning up extensive damage from Helene and its powerful surge. Twelve people perished as Helene swamped the coast, with the worst damage along the narrow, 20-mile (32-kilometer) string of barrier islands that stretch from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.
DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration Sunday to 51 counties and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruption, making sure they have a week’s worth of food and water and are ready to hit the road.
People who live in homes built after Florida strengthened codes in 2004, who don’t depend on constant electricity and who aren’t in evacuation zones should probably avoid the roads, Guthrie said.
All classes and school activities in Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, closed preemptively Monday through Wednesday. Officials in Tampa freed all city garages to residents hoping to protect their cars from flooding, including electric vehicles. The vehicles must be left on the third floor or higher in each garage.
As many as 4,000 National Guard troops are helping state crews to remove debris, DeSantis said, and he directed Florida crews dispatched to North Carolina in Helene’s aftermath to return in preparation for Milton.
When Milton achieved hurricane status, it marked the first time there have been three hurricanes swirling simultaneously in the Atlantic, said Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach. Hurricanes Leslie and Kirk were far out at sea and not immediately threatening land.