This fiscal year, which’ll end June 30, DeWine’s Budget Office estimates Ohio will spend $43.5 billion from the GRF, including the federal contribution to the state’s Medicaid health-care program for low-income Ohioans.
DeWine wants to boost GRF spending to $44.7 billion for the year beginning July 1 (a modest 2.6%), then to $46.7 billion (a 4.5% increase) for the year beginning July 1, 2026. (As of December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers had risen by 2.9% over the previous 12 months.)
Telling fact: Of DeWine’s proposed outlays, 51% is earmarked for Ohio’s Medicaid program, which – as of last month – paid for health-care coverage for 3.04 million Ohioans (just over 1 in 4 Ohio residents). Potential cuts in the federal share of Medicaid costs – very possible, given Trump administration leaks – could wreck Ohio’s budget and the budgets of Ohio health-care providers, especially if Trump squeezes funding for Medicaid’s so-called “expansion” population (almost 778,000 Ohioans last month). GOP Gov. John R. Kasich, as permitted by Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act, expanded Medicaid coverage.
This fiscal year, according to the Ohio Hospital Association, the federal share of a Medicaid patient’s bills covered by the U.S. Treasury, not Ohio’s, is 64.6% for most Ohio Medicaid clients; 75.22% for child clients – and 90% for Ohioans covered by Medicaid expansion.
Predictably, though, what drew far greater attention to DeWine’s budget was his plan to double Ohio’s tax on legal sports bets (now 20%) to 40%: Creating a state fund to help Ohio localities – and billionaire owners of pro sports teams – renovate or build stadiums, etc. Obvious spur: The quest by the Cleveland Browns’ owners, Tennessee truck-stop king Jimmy Haslam and his wife, Dee, for Ohio taxpayers’ money to build a new Browns stadium in suburban Cleveland, abandoning the team’s lakefront stadium.
True, when asked, several legislators expressed “doubts” or “concerns” about DeWine’s quest to double Ohio’s tax on legal sports bets. That’s Statehouse code for, “Hey, governor: What are you going to do for me?” – a traditional opening move in Ohio’s biennial budget pageant.
Meanwhile, it appears the governor didn’t suggest how legislators should respond to yowls of outrage by Ohio homeowners over crushing property-tax bills. The General Assembly’s Joint Committee on Property Tax Review and Reform agreed, yes, something must be done, but hey, don’t ask us what.
Arguably, DeWine’s proposed budget is a plan for continuation, not innovation. Given Washington’s uncertainties, it’s safer for Ohio budgeting to be steady, not glitzy. Still, there’s a big Columbus unknown:
The legislature’s GOP majorities have new leaders, Senate President Rob McColley, of northwest Ohio’s Napoleon, and House Speaker Matt Huffman, of Lima. How they will, or won’t, dovetail with Mike DeWine will be the story of 2025’s budget debate. Pivotal issue: Full funding of public schools, which DeWine appears to back, versus Huffman’s commitment to private-school vouchers.
Mike DeWine has roughly two years left as governor. Matt Huffman could have as many as eight years in the speakership. Watch that budget battle: It’ll shape Ohio schooling, for good or ill, for many years to come.
Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. You can reach him at tsuddes@gmail.com.
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